In the first quarter of 2026, Ukrainian exports demonstrated resilience despite challenging conditions. Exports of goods grew modestly, while services recorded a more noticeable increase. At the same time, faster import growth in both categories widened the trade deficit.

Goods Exports: From Raw Materials Toward Higher Value-Added Products

Ukraine’s merchandise exports reached 10.14 billion USD in January–March 2026, an increase of 220.41 million USD compared to 9.92 billion USD in Q1 2025. However, imports surged to 23.36 billion USD (from 18.46 billion USD), causing the trade deficit to deepen from -8.53 billion USD to -13.21 billion USD. The export-to-import coverage ratio fell from 53.8% to 43.4%.

The structure of goods exports continued to evolve, with a visible shift away from raw materials toward processed agricultural and food products.

Key Declines:

• Ores, slag, and ash (HS 26) dropped sharply from 697.91 million USD to 448.22 million USD (a decrease of 249.69 million USD), with iron ores and concentrates falling by 251.84 million USD.

• Iron and steel (HS 72) decreased from 725.57 million USD to 632.26 million USD (down 93.32 million USD).

• Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits (HS 12) declined from 535.57 million USD to 477.56 million USD (down 58.01 million USD), particularly soybeans (down 120.91 million USD).

• Cereals (HS 10) remained nearly stable at 2.23 billion USD (a slight decrease of 11.78 million USD), but wheat exports dropped significantly by 242.00 million USD.

• Articles of iron and steel (HS 73) decreased from 236.68 million USD to 189.83 million USD (down 46.84 million USD).

Key Growth Areas:

• Fats and oils (HS 15) showed the strongest performance, rising from 1.48 billion USD to 1.86 billion USD (+386.89 million USD). Sunflower oil alone increased by 259.12 million USD.

• Prepared foodstuffs reached 1.04 billion USD (+97.41 million USD), with strong growth in oilseed cakes (HS 2306, up 48.06 million USD), bakers’ wares (HS 1905, up 23.09 million USD), and fruit and vegetable juices (HS 2009, up 10.18 million USD).

• Positive dynamics were also seen in mineral fuels (HS 27, up 71.98 million USD), dairy produce, eggs and natural honey (HS 04, up 48.38 million USD), and residues and waste from the food industries (HS 23, up 47.23 million USD).

Metallurgy as a whole declined to 929.60 million USD (down 133.24 million USD), reducing its share from 10.7% to 9.2%. Machinery and engineering exports fell slightly to 849 million USD (down 33.59 million USD).

In contrast, furniture exports grew to 267.72 million USD (+31.42 million USD), and clothing and footwear exports increased to 204.44 million USD (+9.40 million USD).

Geography of Goods Exports

Exports reached 183 countries, the same as in Q1 2025.

Top destinations:

1. Poland — 1,136.72 million USD (11.2% share of total Ukrainian goods exports)

2. Turkey — 839.56 million USD (8.3%)

3. Germany — 659.61 million USD (6.5%)

4. Italy — 633.12 million USD (6.3%)

5. Spain — 545.59 million USD (5.4%)

Turkey and Germany recorded the largest absolute increases compared to Q1 2025 (Turkey +222.09 million USD, Germany +133.72 million USD), while Spain, China, and France saw the biggest declines (Spain -104.16 million USD, China -90.55 million USD, France -77.52 million USD).

Source of data for goods: State Customs Service of Ukraine.

Services Exports: Steady Growth Driven by IT and Transport

Services exports performed better percentage-wise, rising 4.8% to 3.87 billion USD (from 3.69 billion USD), an increase of 178.62 million USD. Services imports grew faster (to 5.83 billion USD), widening the services trade deficit.

Telecommunications, computer, and information services remained the dominant category, totaling 1.68 billion USD and expanding its leading share slightly from 43.4% to 43.5% (a 5.0% growth rate). Within this group, computer services remained the core segment, generating 1.64 billion USD and accounting for 42.5% of total service exports. Meanwhile, information services recorded the highest growth dynamics, with exports increasing by 271.4% compared to the previous period — from 7 million USD to 26 million USD — indicating accelerating development and diversification within Ukraine’s digital services sector.

Growth Leaders:

• Freight transport increased from 273 million USD to 357 million USD (growth rate of +30.8%).

• Other business services increased from 721 million USD to 789 million USD (+9.4%).

• Construction services expanded strongly from a low base, rising from 8 million USD to 34 million USD (+325%).

Declines:

• Other transport services decreased from 245 million USD to 175 million USD (-28.6%).

• Travel services decreased slightly from 282 million USD to 278 million USD (-1.4%).

Geography of Computer Services Exports

The United States remained the largest market at 615 million USD (+12.7%). Other key destinations included Malta (145 million USD, +2.5%), the United Kingdom (122 million USD, –12.5%), Cyprus (118 million USD, +4.1%), and Israel (67 million USD, +0.5%). The fastest growth rates were observed in Hungary (+43.9%), Latvia (+35.3%), Slovakia (+34.2%), Spain (+28.8%), and Estonia (+27.5%).

Note: Data for January, February, and March 2026 are preliminary.

Source of data for services: National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

Conclusions

In the first quarter of 2026, Ukraine’s exports of goods and services demonstrated resilience amid a challenging external environment. Merchandise exports grew by 220 million USD, reaching 10.14 billion USD, while services exports increased by 179 million USD (+4.8%, to 3.87 billion USD). However, a sharp rise in imports led to a significant widening of the trade deficit.

Positive Trends:

• There is a clear shift away from a raw material-based model toward higher value-added products. The strongest growth was recorded in fats and oils (+387 million USD, primarily sunflower oil), prepared foodstuffs, dairy products, and food industry residues. This indicates a gradual reorientation of Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex toward deeper processing.

• The services sector remains one of the most stable drivers of the Ukrainian economy. The IT sector (telecommunications, computer, and information services) maintained its leading position (43.5% of total services exports), with computer services reaching 1.64 billion USD. Freight transport and construction services also showed significant growth.

Challenges:

• A substantial deterioration in the trade balance due to faster import growth.

• Continued decline in traditional raw material and metallurgical export positions (ores, iron, and steel).

Overall, the first quarter of 2026 confirmed the ongoing transformation of Ukraine’s export structure — moving from raw materials toward processed goods and high-tech services. To further improve the trade balance, it is critically important to increase exports of higher value-added products, develop the IT sector, and expand the geography of sales.