On 24 March, an expert discussion entitled “Ukraine’s Dairy Exports in 2026: From Adaptation to Scaling Up in the EU“ took place, bringing together leading analysts, experts and business representatives to discuss the strategic prospects for the Ukrainian dairy sector in international markets.

The discussion focused on strategies to strengthen the position of Ukrainian dairy producers abroad and served as a key platform for reflecting on the industry’s transition from stabilisation to systematic scaling up – with a particular focus on the European Union market.

Iryna Vysotska, Deputy Local Manager, Dairy Sector Component Coordinator of the Swiss-Ukrainian Programme “Higher Value Added Trade from the Organic and Dairy Sector in Ukraine” (QFTP), outlined the main objective of the series of expert discussions during the opening of the event: to support and promote the export of Ukrainian dairy products in the context of the war, to diversify opportunities for producers, and to adapt to shifts in market balances.

The speaker noted that the full-scale invasion had significantly reshaped the dairy market due to demographic shifts, however, raw milk production is gradually recovering and growing, prompting the sector to increasingly focus on external markets. The year 2025 was marked by a sharp surge in exports – both in physical volumes and value – with EU markets playing a critically important role in this growth.

Iryna Vysotska identified the strategic transition of the dairy sector from recovery and adaptation to full-scale expansion in the EU market as the main topic of discussion.

“The aim of our initiatives is to diversify export opportunities for Ukrainian dairy producers amid the war and shifting dairy balances. Ukrainian exporters are moving from the adaptation phase to scaling up their presence in the European market,” she noted.

Continuing the introductory section, Andriy Talama, Director of the Entrepreneurship and Export Promotion Office, outlined the strategic priorities for the panellists. In his view, effective operation in foreign markets is based on three key aspects: in-depth analysis, an understanding of trends, and systematic business preparation.

The year 2025 was a year of adaptation – businesses familiarised themselves with EU regulations, restructured their logistics and confirmed compliance with standards. In contrast, 2026 is a year of scaling up: the transition from one-off shipments to a systematic presence in European markets. The strategic focus is not simply on exporting raw materials, but on opening up new markets with a range of high-quality finished products.

“We now view 2026 as a time for scaling up. It is important to move from one-off shipments to systematic operations in European markets,” noted Andriy Talama, Director of the Entrepreneurship and Export Promotion Office.

During the discussion, analytics for 2025 were presented, along with updated conditions for access to the EU market and the specifics of the Czech market, and the main conditions and stages of preparation for the SIAL international exhibition in Paris were outlined.

“The outcomes of this discussion should provide us all with clear guidelines for decision-making and risk minimisation,” concluded Andriy Talama.

Market Analysis and Forecasts

Maksym Fasteyev, Infagro project partner, and an adviser to the EU Integration Committee of Ukrainian Dairy, presented an analytical review of the current state and prospects of Ukrainian dairy exports. According to him, 2025 was a historic year for the sector – export volumes in monetary terms reached their highest level in the last 10 years.

In 2025, Ukraine increased its dairy exports by almost 20% – to approximately 700,000 tonnes in raw milk equivalent, whilst the net trade balance reached 300,000 tonnes in milk equivalent and over $100 million in monetary terms.

At the same time, in the second half of the year, the EU lost its status as a key market – due to the return to quotas and a sharp fall in global butter prices. However, butter quotas were never fully utilised – price volatility was the main limiting factor. The price collapse was caused by a simultaneous increase in milk production in the EU, the US, Argentina and Oceania – a combined increase of 5–8% in the volume of raw materials on the global market.

Against the backdrop of falling commodity prices, sales of value-added products –packaged butter and fresh cheeses – rose, mainly through private-label brands in Germany; a similar trend was observed in the condensed milk segment, where the share of private labels reached 35%, exceeding the figures for 2021. It is noteworthy that exports of higher-value-added dairy products to the EU amounted to approximately $52 million (31% of total dairy exports), which in real terms represents a 76% increase compared to 2024.

Among the new promising markets, the Czech Republic stands out: in 2025, it imported 135,000 tonnes of cheese, 30,000 tonnes of butter and over 8,000 tonnes of milk powder – a 4.2-fold increase compared to 3,800 tonnes in 2023.

In 2026, pressure on the sector is mounting: spot prices for milk in Europe have been stuck at 15 euro cents since Christmas, whilst in the US, prices for milk powder have exceeded butter prices for the second week running – due to global demand for protein. The response must be to diversify export markets and increase the share of value-added products.

“Exporters must respond to all these rapid changes promptly and keep abreast of developments – in geopolitics, logistics and regional prices,” noted Maksym Fasteyev.

Details of the Infagro presentation can be found at the link (in Ukrainian only).

The bulletin ”Trends in Export of Ukrainian Dairy Products in 2025“, prepared by the Infagro agency as part of a series of expert talks on supporting exports during the war, is available via the link.

EU regulatory requirements: adapting to new circumstances

Galyna Perepelytsia, a consultant at QFTP and certified consultant on EU export, technical regulation, highlighted the key regulatory conditions determining the potential for scaling up in the EU market in 2026. According to her, the sector is completing the initial adaptation phase and moving towards strategic expansion of its presence.

“We are no longer simply ‘knocking on Europe’s door’ – we are stepping inside, and now we must play by the rules, which are becoming increasingly stringent in terms of environmental standards and traceability,” she noted.

Following the signing of amendments to the Association Agreement in October, trading conditions with the EU have been set until 2028. Yoghurt and buttermilk are imported duty-free, whilst a quota of 15,000 tonnes per year has been set for milk powder and 7,000 tonnes for butter. To utilise the quota, an importer into the EU must demonstrate at least two years’ trading history and pay a security deposit of €35 per 100 kg of goods. Therefore, even before signing a contract, exporters should check whether the buyer is eligible to obtain a licence. The main quotas for dairy products (milk, milk powder, butter) are administered through the AGRIM import licence system. The annual volumes of these quotas are divided into two sub-periods: from 1 January to 30 June and from 1 July to 31 December.

From 2026, confirming Ukrainian origin has become simpler and more standardised. It is also worth noting that from 12 August 2026, new EU packaging regulations will come into force – certain types of packaging materials for food products will be banned. Competitiveness in the EU market is determined not only by price, but also by unique quality characteristics and robust logistical readiness that meets the requirements for the shelf life of fresh dairy products.

“Scaling up in 2026 is not just about tonnes of produce, but about the ability of a Ukrainian brand to become recognisable and trustworthy to European consumers on the supermarket shelf,” added Galyna Perepelytsia.

The presentation “EU Market Access Rules 2026: New Requirements for the Dairy Sector” is available via the link (in Ukrainian only).

For more information on the requirements for dairy products in the EU market, please visit the Diia.Business portal via the link (in Ukrainian only).

Overview of the Czech Market

Olga Gvozdeva, an advisor at the State Institution “Entrepreneurship and Export Promotion Office”, presented a study of the Czech dairy market. The country has a population of around 11 million, and the ”milk, cheese and eggs” category ranks second in household expenditure after meat: average annual expenditure on this category amounts to around USD 830. Ukraine has already established itself in the market: in 2025, exports of condensed milk and cream reached around USD 1 million, and the country became one of the top suppliers in this category. The main competitors are Poland, Germany, Slovakia and the Netherlands.

Butter. Czech consumers are increasingly turning away from margarine and spreads in favour of butter. The market is set to grow by 3.7% annually in value terms over the next five years, and by 1.3% in volume terms. The segment leader is the local company Madeta with a 15% share; private labels account for over 18%. Hypermarkets remain the leading sales channel, though their share is gradually declining in favour of discounters, which are approaching a third of sales.

Cheeses. The largest and most promising segments are hard and soft cheeses, both of which will grow in both volume and value terms. Demand is being driven by two niches simultaneously: premium natural cheeses modelled on Western Europe and value-for-money private-label products, which already account for 31% of the soft cheese market. Key trends include high-protein products and functional characteristics, particularly low-lactose content.

Yoghurts and fermented milk products.

“Entering the market with yoghurts right now is a very sound strategy,” says Olga Gvozdeva.

This is the only segment where all categories are growing simultaneously – both in volume and in value terms. Flavoured and drinkable yoghurts are forecast to grow by over 2% annually over the next five years. The segment leader is the local brand Olma, with a 16% share of the yoghurt market, whilst private labels account for 25%. Hypermarkets account for around 40% of sales, but are gradually losing ground to discounters and supermarkets.
The Czech dairy market research is available via the link (in Ukrainian only).

Regulatory features and market entry in the Czech Republic

In the second part of her presentation, Galyna Perepelytsia focused on the practical aspects of entering the Czech market; whilst it is open, gaining a foothold there is no easy task.

From 1 January 2027, new labelling rules for dairy products will come into force: in particular, only three categories of milk fat content are recognised in the Czech Republic — so producers with non-standard specifications must adapt their products before entering the market. For the first step, it is recommended to choose smaller regional chains rather than large international ones: the latter’s requirements are extremely strict — fines for delivery delays of even a few hours, listing fees, or funding promotional activities from one’s own budget. Most chains require that, by the time the product reaches the shelf, at least 70% of the shelf life remains — this must be taken into account as early as the logistics planning stage.

“Access to the Czech market is easy, as there are no prohibitive barriers. However, gaining shelf space involves going through all the necessary procedures,” noted Galyna Perepelytsia.

The practical guide “Access to the Czech Market: Regulatory Requirements and Practical Aspects of Compliance” is available via the link (in Ukrainian only).

The guide “Export of Dairy Products to the Czech Republic” is available via the link.

Preparing for international events. The SIAL exhibition

In 2026, the Entrepreneurship and Export Promotion Office will organise a collective stand at the SIAL international exhibition in Paris in October. According to Oleksii Grushetskyi, Deputy Director of the State Institution “Entrepreneurship and Export Promotion Office”, participation in such events is the most effective tool for finding buyers and, at the same time, an opportunity to demonstrate to the international community that Ukrainian manufacturers continue to operate and export despite the challenges of the war. Registration to participate in the stand is open until 31 March.

Preparing for large-scale exhibitions is a lengthy process that goes far beyond logistics: it requires a pre-established database of potential partners and readiness for substantive negotiations. The Office handles the organisational aspects, helping producers minimise costs and risks. Switzerland is also providing support for the organisation of the national stand in the dairy pavilion at the SIAL exhibition as part of the Swiss-Ukrainian Programme “Higher Value Added Trade from the Organic and Dairy Sector in Ukraine”. Key selection criteria include: the company being registered in Ukraine, readiness to export (availability of English-language materials and a representative), no legal ties with Russia or Belarus, and status as a small or medium-sized enterprise (up to 250 employees). Preference is given to companies with a diverse range of value-added products – so that the stand fully showcases the potential of the Ukrainian dairy sector.

“We would like to showcase the full potential of the Ukrainian dairy sector, so when selecting companies, we look at their product range to ensure they offer a variety of products,” said Oleksii Grushetskyi.

Call for Ukrainian Dairy Companies to Join the National Stand at SIAL Paris 2026